CNN Poll: GOP voters’ broad support for Trump holds, with less than half seriously worried criminal charges will harm his 2024 chances By Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel

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CNN

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Former President Donald Trump continues to hold what has proven to be an unshakeable position atop the Republican field of candidates vying to take on President Joe Biden next year, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

Trump is the top choice for his party’s nomination at the traditional Labor Day start to a more engaged campaign season, ahead of his nearest rival by more than 30 percentage points (52% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters support him, compared with 18% behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis). And Trump is broadly seen as best able to handle a wide range of issues.

More than 4 in 10 in the potential GOP primary electorate say they have definitely decided to support him for the nomination (43% are definite Trump backers, 20% are firmly behind another candidate, and 37% have no first choice or say they could change their minds). Nearly two-thirds consider him one of their top two choices, and 61% say they think he is extremely or very likely to become the party’s nominee, up from 52% at the start of the summer. Most feel the criminal charges Trump faces are not relevant to his ability to serve as president, and a majority of GOP-aligned voters are not seriously concerned about the impact the charges could have on Trump’s electability. Despite these dominant numbers, the poll does suggest his appeal has waned for at least some segment of the party. Around 1 in 5 Republican-aligned voters say they would not support Trump in the primary under any circumstances and 16% say the charges he faces related to his role in the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol are disqualifying if true – but that segment remains a minority and has not consolidated around any single Trump rival.

The poll — conducted entirely after the first GOP debate in August, which Trump did not attend – finds DeSantis the only other contender to reach double-digits, although his backing has dipped 8 points since June. Behind him, former Vice President Mike Pence and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley hold 7% support each, with businessman Vivek Ramaswamy at 6%. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has 3% support, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has 2%, and the rest of the tested field stands at 1% or less.

Trump’s standing in first-choice preferences has rebounded since CNN’s June poll, though the share calling him one of their top two choices or rating him favorably both remain lower than this spring. He’s up 5 points overall as voters’ first choice, including apparent upticks among White college-educated voters (up 6 points since June), and self-identified Republicans (up 10 points). But the 63% of all GOP-aligned voters placing him in their top two remains about where it was in June (61%), a step lower than in May (68%), as does his overall favorability rating with that group (69% now, 77% in May). In the new poll, a 94% majority of Trump’s supporters view him favorably, but that falls to just 42% among those not currently supporting him in the primary.

Trump’s criminal charges

A minority, 44%, of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are seriously concerned that the criminal charges Trump faces will negatively affect his ability to win the 2024 election if he becomes the Republican nominee, while 56% are not seriously concerned about that. A third of those who back Trump have those concerns (34%), rising to 54% among Republicans supporting another candidate.